Walton's Wall

Walton’s Wall will be covering tonight’s results in-depth with updates starting at 8:00PM and at least every 20 minutes afterward.

***3:45 update***

It looks like the Coakley campaign is already trying to point fingers to the Democrats in DC for her lose in the election.  In a memo released it shows that the Coakley camp blames the National Democrats for failing to rally behind her.

Turn out in the Bay State appears to be high according to multiple reports.

***4:55PM Update***

Just appearing on CNN, John King said that all Democratic leaders he talked to were feeling down and worried about the results.

*** 7:25PM Update***

In a note on how the race affects the economy, all major markets were up today in trading.  Many think that the rally is on speculation of a Brown win.  Should Coakley pull out a victory look for a down market tomorrow.

***7:57PM Update***

With polls closing in a few minutes The Drudge Report claims that turnout is near 50%…. this could mean either Coakley wins with less than 1% or Brown blows this election open winning with more than 8%…. the word from White House advisors is “candidates matter”, meaning privately they don’t think Coakley will win.

***8:01 PM update***

The polls have now closed in Mass.  Brown is now meeting with his campaign team.

***8:18PM Update***

According to pollster Scott Rasmussen, Among those who decided how they would vote in the past few days, Coakley has a slight edge, 47% to 41% (Obama visit impact?)… and also of importance 22% of Democrats voted for Brown. That is generally consistent with pre-election polling….

***8:25PM Update ***

One important thing to remember when watching coverage is that there are no exit polls for this race as no one thought it would be this close.   Brown is up with 1% in, though I wont starting posting strong numbers until we reach 15% reporting…. I think then we can then begin to start to make some idea of whats going on, and I mean SOME.

***8:39PM Update***

The Caucus, a NY Times blog reports that “Democrats were studying turnout models and disappointed by what appeared to be lower-than-expected turnout in minority precincts, which typically trend Democratic.”…. If this true then Coakley will remain the AG of Mass…. one thing is that we haven’t heard anything from Boston (a Dem. strong hold)…. this could tell us if the model The Caucus reported on looks to be correct.

***8:43PM Update***

Results are coming in fast, with 21% in its Brown holding a decent lead 53/46…. looking at results, it appears that Brown is over performing in the key areas such as Danvers.

***8:48PM Update***

So far in Boston, 20 out of 254 precincts have reported and Coakley is winning  53 to Browns 46… she needs to run up the score in Boston more than what she has now.

***8:57PM Update***

Larry Sabato say’s on Twitter that “It is already obvious that Scott Brown will win the Senate seat in MA.”

***9:04PM Update***

With 57% in it’s Brown leading 53% to 46%…… Brown has about an 80,000 vote lead

We at Walton’s Wall might be in the position to make a call within the next 20 minutes

****9:13PM Update****

with 65% in, it remains Brown leading 53 to 46… 120 out of 254 precincts in Boston have reported….

We at Walton’s Wall are close to making a call

***9:18PM Update***

BREAKING, rumors say that Coakley has called Brown to concede

*****9:21PM Update****

With 71% of the vote in, Walton’s Wall is calling the US Senate Race for Scott Brown

***9:31PM Update***

Coakley to speak soon, with Brown to follow

Also, be sure to check Walton’s Wall tomorrow for post election thoughts and analysis

***9:44PM Update***

Now that I have a second to take a breath here are my first thoughts about the election results…. this was a historic election, the message that the citizens of the Bay State sent to Washington DC was loud and clear, NO on health care and YES on the economy.  This truly was a devastating blow to President Obama and Democrats.  Obama is now 0 for 3 in campaigns since being elected, Governors races in Virginia and New Jersey and now this Senate election….. more posts after the speeches, but these are my first thoughts with more to come in tomorrows Walton’s Wall

**11:15PM Update**

This is my last post of the night… Brown victory speech was ok, he went a little too long and was all over the place, but for someone to come from behind like he did he deserved his extended time in the spotlight.

Tomorrow on Walton’s Wall read my reactions to what took place tonight….

Tomorrow, January 19^th, residents in Massachusetts will go to the polls to elect a new US Senator to fill the vacancy left by the death of the Lion of the Senate, Ted Kennedy.  The election, once thought to be an easy victory for Democratic Attorneys General Martha Coakley, has turned into a fight with Republican State Senator Scott Brown.  The race has become so close that the Coakley campaign is hoping that a last minuet Sunday campaign visit by President Obama will pull her across this finish as a victor.

Recent polls suggest that Brown has a slight lead over Coakley, however in the heavily Democratic leaning Bay State no one is sure if these leads are enough to withstand the Democratic machine.  What is sure certain is that Tuesday’s election will be one for the ages.

Right now all the wind is behind Brown’s back as veteran independent political polling pendant Charlie Cook now says that Brown is now the favorite.  On his Web site Cook say, “Given the vagaries of voter turnout, particularly in lower participation level special elections, this race could still go either way, but we put a finger on the scale for Brown.”

This sentiment has even caused Obama advisors to believe that Coakley will lose to Brown.  According to CNN Senior White House Correspondent Ed Henry “Multiple advisers to President Obama have privately told party officials that they believe Democrat Martha Coakley is going to lose Tuesday’s special election…” 

While the polls show that Brown would win the election if it were held today I would be extremely cautious with optimism if I were in the Brown camp.  Massachusetts hasn’t had a Republican US Senator since 1979.  It’s with that fact alone that makes this race not only interesting, but also hard to predict.

The enthusiasm is clearly more clear on the Republican side of the electorate, one reason for President Obama’s visit yesterday.  If the Democratic machine turns out the voters like they have in the past, then Coakley has a chance to pullout a victory with a Hail Mary.

What might prevent a Hail Mary is the idiotic mistakes that Coakley has made on the campaign trail, the most recent being that she called Boston Red Sox’s legend Curt Schilling a Yankee fan.  While this might not seem like a big deal, it shows how out of touch Coakley is with the average voter.  She even mocked Brown for standing out in the cold to meet voters in front of Fenway Stadium.

All in all, I predict that after Tuesday’s special election the GOP will have 41 votes in the Senate.  After looking at all the data I see Brown breaking through and winning with between 4 and 5 percent of the vote, anything more would add a twist of the knife of defeat for Coakley.

*** Update Jan 18, 1:13PM ***

The nasty weather that is predicted for tomorrow will be a factor in the outcome of the election.  This is where the enthusiasm behind Brown will help in his efforts to breakthrough.

****Update Jan 18, 4:31PM****

Politico has a new poll out reflecting that Coakley’s numbers are in “free fall”.

*****Update Jan 18, 5:50PM*****

After looking further into the polling numbers I am revising my prediction for tomorrow with Brown still winning, but with a greater margin between 6-8%.